The leading cryptocurrency's quotes remain 15% below the true market mean price, which stands at $77,200. According to Glassnode analysts, on-chain metrics point to the continuation of a bearish trend.
Short-term holders have not yet broken even. The MVRV ratio for this group rose from 0.81 to 0.9 but remains below the critical level of 1. On average, the coins were bought at $72,600, so the recent rise to $65,000 did not cover the losses.
Bitcoin's realized capitalization fell by 1.45% over the past 90 days, to $1.07 trillion. This confirms a net outflow of capital from the network. For a shift to a bullish phase, the metric needs to return to growth, and the price needs to hold above $77,200.
The impact of macroeconomics
Experts attribute the price decline in May-June to a "war premium." After news of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, tensions eased. WTI crude oil fell from $86 to $76, and gold lost its safe-haven premium. During this period, Bitcoin stabilized in the $65,000-66,000 range.
The spot liquidity situation improved. On the Binance exchange, the volume of buy orders significantly exceeded the number of sell orders. Passive buyers began actively absorbing supply in the $60,000 area.
In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) declined. Implied volatility normalized, falling from 65% to 35% on weekly contracts. At the same time, the main risk zone (negative gamma) is concentrated at the $68,000 level — here dealers will have to actively hedge positions in the event of a price increase.
Analysts concluded: the market remains fragile, but signs of forced selling are disappearing. Further recovery depends on the inflow of liquidity and buyers' ability to hold current levels.
As a reminder, on June 18 the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell below $64,000. The market reacted with a decline to the outcome of the first Fed meeting under the leadership of Kevin Warsh.
Source: ForkLog
