Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical loss-realization phase, but its structure differs from the first major wave of decline. As CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ notes, most of the panicking sellers have probably already left the market, and the current capitulation looks weaker than the previous one.
According to the researcher, the market is in a late stage of stress: weak holders are mostly "washed out," the intensity of realized losses is declining, but there is no final confirmation of a bottom yet.
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What the realized-loss metrics say
The 30-day Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows that the current wave of losses is noticeable. However, it is smaller than during the first sell-off of the year. Back then the market absorbed about 400,000 BTC of realized losses, whereas now, at similar price levels, that figure is closer to 234,000 BTC.
This divergence is important. According to MorenoDV_, it indicates that the marginal seller is becoming weaker in volume: a significant part of the panic supply appears to have already left the market during the first decline. In other words, the same price zone no longer triggers a capitulation of the previous magnitude.
The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta indicator (the difference between buying and selling pressure) confirms the same idea. Seller pressure persists but has not yet reached the extreme values typical of past capitulations. Historically, such a structure appears when the market has already "washed out" most of the weak holders but still needs a final test.
The bottom is close, but there is no final confirmation
The annual net realized profit indicator adds broader context. Bitcoin's previous market lows formed when this figure went much deeper into the loss zone. Today the metric is negative, but it has not yet reached the historical extremes that marked major cyclical bottoms.
Source: BeInCrypto
